4 players · 500 Mu each · Binary outcomes · Parimutuel or LMSR
A prediction market turns a question into a price. When people stake on YES or NO, the odds reflect what the group collectively believes. This simulator lets you run the same question under two different mechanisms — and feel the difference.
The original prediction market, used in horse racing for over a century. Everyone who backs the winning side splits the total pool proportionally. The key feature: you don't know your final payout when you stake. Odds are implied by the pool sizes at any moment, but they keep shifting as more people stake, and only lock in at resolution.
If YES has 300 Mu staked and NO has 100 Mu, the pool implies a 75% probability for YES. But if three more players pile in on YES before close, your share of the pot shrinks. You're betting against the field — not against a fixed price.
When it fits: Simple, fair, zero house edge. Works well for one-shot events where everyone commits once and waits. Cricket match tonight. Election tomorrow.
LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) uses a mathematical formula to set prices continuously. There's no pool — instead, an automated market maker quotes you a price for each share at every moment. Buy YES shares and the YES price rises immediately, making the next YES share slightly more expensive. Sell and the price moves back down.
This means odds are live and responsive. You can trade multiple times, change your mind, and sell shares back before resolution. Each winning share pays a fixed 50 Mu regardless of when you bought it — but what you paid for that share reflects the market's confidence at the moment you traded.
The cost to watch: The unit price per share is shown next to each outcome (e.g. "YES · 31.2 Mu/sh"). Watch it climb as people buy YES. That rising price is the market learning in real time. The liquidity parameter b = 5 controls how much prices move per trade — lower b means bigger swings per trade.
When it fits: Richer price discovery. Better for ongoing questions where views evolve, new information arrives, or you want to see the crowd's confidence shift trade by trade.
In WePredict, Mu is earned by engaging with NeoMails — opening emails, completing Magnets, maintaining streaks. It's play money with earned scarcity: a balance of 3,000 Mu represents weeks of showing up, which is why staking it feels like something even without cash at stake.
Losing Mu in a group where your friends can see the scoreboard is genuinely felt. The social layer is what turns a virtual currency into real consequence. Try "Play again — same settings" to run the same question under both mechanisms back to back and compare how the dynamics differ.